St. Louis economy now performing better than average
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
December 21, 2009
by Tim Logan
Here's something you don't hear every day: Economically speaking, St. Louis is ahead of the curve.
The St. Louis region is weathering the recession better than many places in the U.S., and motored at least a little bit out of the middle of the pack in the third quarter, according to a new report from the Brookings Institution.
For the last nine months, the Washington think-tank has been tracking key economic indicators in the country's 100 biggest metro areas, to see how they're faring in the recession. In the first and second quarters of 2009, it ranked St. Louis among in the middle 20 percent, pretty much in line with the national average (in fact, the first time Brookings put out its ranking, St. Louis was 49th. Only Nashville was more typical. Brookings has since stopped ranking all cities and now just groups them into fifths).
But in these latest rankings, for the third quarter, St. Louis landed one spot better: In the "second-strongest 20 metros" category, somewhere between 20th and 40th. That puts us in the company of research hubs like Raleigh, NC, and Baltimore, and some of the healthier Midwestern economies like Indianapolis and Columbus, Ohio.
What changed? A few things.
Most important, St. Louis has nearly returned to its peak "gross metropolitan product," the broadest measure of the region's economic output. GMP is down just 0.6 percent from its peak early this year, better than all but 16 other regions. The nation as a whole is 2.5 percent off its peak.
Also, despite sizeable job losses here, employment is only 3.8 percent off its pre-recession peak, compared to a 4.6 percent decline nationwide. That's little comfort to the roughly 49,000 people here who've lost their jobs in the last two years. But it's a sign that our economy has proven more stable than most.
What hurts St. Louis?
Our unemployment rate remains rather high: 9.9 percent for the quarter compared to 9.5 percent nationwide - a holdover from our higher-than-normal unemployment levels for much of the last decade. And we had a larger-than-average increase in the number of foreclosures in the third quarter. But neither case was extreme.
Now, performing slightly better than the nation as a whole in the worst economy in decades is no cause for fireworks and parades. But it's a sign that, for all the troubles here, we're weathering this recession better than many places. As (and if) the recovery picks up steam, it remains to be seen if St. Louis can capitalize on its momentum.
